Stock Market Analysis
Our current stock market analysis indicates that the market is attempting to hold its recent gains. We have seen the US Stock market execute a strong rally from the lows in mid-October. This most recent rally began with a V-Spike reversal, which is one of the strongest of market moves. It has run up 200 points without more than a half-day of pullback. That’s a pretty good rally for this market. We discussed our near-term bullish outlook earlier in the last post on Sunday night.
Stock Market Analysis: Intraday Considerations
Tonight we take a closer, more in-depth look at the rally with the aid of the intraday chart. We are showing the 54,000 tick chart which covers all trading in the American, European and Asian sessions from the mid-October lows. On the intraday chart, we did see some increased down volume yesterday (November 4th). That would normally be a bearish indication, but price didn’t respond to the volume. Because price didn’t fall by much, whatever selling occurred was absorbed by buyers. Intraday volume and wave analysis also show demand is waning a bit at the highs, and the Nasdaq futures are starting to lag behind the Dow and S&Ps. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market pull back at some point in the near future. Even then, a pullback is expected to be a minor one, perhaps setting up an absorption situation. This outlook would, of course, change if we see supply move into the market.
Thursday’s Trading Plan
My plan for Thursday is to look to buy a test of Tuesday’s low (1995.25) if the market turns down overnight into Thursday’s S&P morning session, assuming a normal pullback in price and volume. We might even see a spring. If the market instead rallies to new highs on Thursday morning, I’d be looking to see if demand tires around 2030 or so.
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