Fed Day trading almost always involves contraction of volatility in the morning session and expansion of volatility right around the announcement. Often, like today, the pick-up in volatility will trigger an afternoon trend. In yesterday's post, I highlighted my take on key resistance and support for today's trading. These are outlined in boxes on the 3,000 tick chart. We see … [Read more...]
So Far, It’s Been A Pretty Weak Rally
When we look across the three major US stock market indices, the best we can say is, So far, it's been a pretty weak rally. Last Monday (June 9), all three markets made new highs. As the week progressed, the Nasdaq (as represented by the QQQ ETF) tried to hold onto the newly gotten gains, but the Dow (DIA) and the S&Ps (SPY) gave them up. You can see this at the area … [Read more...]
Follow-Up to Yesterday’s Post
In yesterday's post, I noted that there was less volume and less range on Friday, indicating that buyers were becoming tired and to be aware of a potential intraday reversal. Support was identified in the 1940-45 area and resistance could see the market lose steam around 1955-60. Lows were made first today when the market pulled back on low volume into 1946. Minutes before the … [Read more...]
Bullish Market – What Will Turn It Down?
The market--as represented by the S&P e-mini futures--has certainly been bullish. We have had a run of several up days or near up days in a row. The market structure has been conducive to a bull run and the run has been impressive. At some point, however, the current rally will end and we will see a pullback of some degree. What Will Turn This Market While I don't try to … [Read more...]
Coordinating Time Frames
One of the key skills in trading the markets by its own action is the skill of understanding structure. Someone recently told me that they look solely at price and volume; they consider structure irrelevant. I can't understand that attitude. To my way of trading, using structure is essential. A good example of how structure plays a significant role in trading occurred on … [Read more...]
